Smug Fantasy Football

Offseason Overview

Last Updated: May 10, 2014

I’ll let you in on a little secret. The key to good forecasting, and therefore fantasy football, does not reside in last year’s stats.  They help, but the real essence of projection relies on your own ability to understand situations unique to each player. Usage, competition, scheme, red zone and goal line opportunity, surrounding talent, injury history.  These are the factors to consider this off-season. Anyone can go to an advanced NFL metrics website like Pro Football Focus or NumberFire and find out who is good. What separates great fantasy players from mediocre ones lies in their ability to make sense of the shitstorm of 24/7 NFL news information rushing in leading up to and during the season. Talent is easy to identify.  LeSean McCoy is good. Jamaal Charles is good. Duh. These will be the first two picks in every draft. After that, it’s going to be an epic cluster fuck and you will have a million talking heads telling you who to draft here and what to do there. It’s tough to make sense of it all. Save yourself the stress on draft day and start preparing. Winning your league begins now. So read on and get a lay of the land. The focus here is on the offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) of all 32 NFL franchises. We’re going to look at this in terms of job opportunities and job seekers.

3rb = 3rd down RB

GLrb = Goal Line RB

AFC East

Buffalo

QB: E.J. Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon

RB: CJ Spiller (3rb), Fred Jackson (GLrb), Bryce Brown (5.10.14 TRADED to BUF from PHI for conditional 2015 NFL Draft pick), Anthony Dixon (3.15.14 Agreed to terms), Ronnie Wingo, Anthony Allen

WR: Sammy Watkins*, Mike Williams (4.4.14 TRADED to BUF from TB for a 6th round NFL Draft pick), Robert Woods , Marquise Goodwin, T.J. Graham, Chris Hogan, Marcus Easley, Chris Summers, Ramses Barden, Brandon Kaufman

TE: Scott Chandler (3.13.14 Re-signed 2 years), Chris Gragg, Lee Smith, Tony Moaeki, Mike Caussin

K: Dan Carpenter, Dustin Hopkins

Cut Watch: Kevin Kolb at $3.6 million. He may or may not retire. *Update 3.11.14 Bills CUT Kolb

NEEDS: TE, QB

Miami

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Jordan Rodgers

RB: Knowshon Moreno (3rb)(GLrb) (3.27.14 1 year $3 million), Lamar Miller, Daniel Thomas, Marcus Thigpen, Mike Gillislee

WR: Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, Jarvis Landry*, Brandon Gibson,  Rishard Mathews, Damian Williams, Matt Hazel*, Armon Binns, Ryan Spadola, Michael Rios

TE: Charles Clay, Dion Sims, Arthur Lynch*, Michael Egnew, Kyle Miller, Emmanuel Ogbuehi

K: Caleb Sturgis, Matt Szymanski

Cut Watch: Mike Wallace at $17 million.  Probably not happening, but what a terrible contract.

NEEDS: WR

New England

QB: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo*

RB: Shane Vereen (3rb), Stevan Ridley (GLrb), Brandon Bolden, James White*, Jonas Gray

WR: Julian Edelman (3.15.14 Agreed to terms), Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson (left foot is slowing down breakout hype),  Brandon LaFell (3.17.14 Agreed to terms),  Kenbrell Thompkins, Josh Boyce, Mark Harrison (big sleeper if fully recovered from foot problem.  Could ascend depth chart in offseason), Matt Slater, Jeremy Gallon*, Greg Orton, Reggie Dunn

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Hoomanawanui, D.J. Williams

K: Stephen Gostkowski

Cut Watch: None. Great contracts. *Update 3.9.14 Danny Amendola could be cut before Tuesday March 11, 2013 to free up room for Free Agent WR Julian Edelman. *Update 3.15.14 The Pats did not cut Amendola, but are working to resign Julian Edelman anyways. *Update 3.15.14 Patriots agreed to terms with Edelman.

NEEDS: TE

NY Jets

QB: Geno Smith, Mike Vick (3.21.14 1 year $5 million),  Tahj Boyd*, Matt Simms

RB: Chris Johnson (3rb) (4.15.14 2 years $8 million), Chris Ivory (GLrb), Bilal Powell, Daryl Richardson, Mike Goodson

WR: Eric Decker (3.13.14 5 years $36 million), Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, David Nelson, Jalen Saunders*, Shaq Evans*, Clyde Gates, Greg Salas, Jacoby Ford (4.2.14 Agreed to terms),  Quincy Enuwa*, Michael Campbell, Saalim Hakim

TE: Jace Amaro*, Jeff Cumberland (3.9.14 Re-signed 3 years $3.7 million). Zach Sudfeld, Konrad Reuland, Colin Anderson, Chris Pantale

K: Nick Folk

Cut Watch: QB Mark Sanchez.  $13 million? Uh ya bye bye. *Update 3.21.14 Jets CUT Mark Sanchez. WR Santonio Holmes for $10 million? Suck my Idzick. Mike Goodson at $1.9 million in 2014 will be more than both Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, who combined make just $2.5 million. Their best move is to bring in a back via the draft to compete with Goodson and Powell. *Update 3.10.14 Jets CUT Santonio Holmes

NEEDS: WR, TE

NFC East

Dallas

QB: Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Brandon Weeden (3.17.14 2 year deal), Caleb Hanie

RB: DeMarco Murray (3rb) (GLrb), Lance Dunbar (hyped for a Joique Bell type role with new OC passing game coordinator Scott Linehan), Joseph Randle

WR: Dez Bryant, Terrence Williams, Cole Beasley, Dwayne Harris, Devin Street*, Lance Lewis, Jamar Newsome, Tim Benford, LaRon Byrd

TE: Jason Witten, Gavin Escobar, James Hanna

K: Dan Bailey

Cut Watch: WR Miles Austin. $8.3 million is too much with such a big talent in Terrence Williams behind. Austin will be miles from Dallas this season. *Update 3.11.14 Austin will be released and designated post June 1 cut.

Free Agents: RB Phillip Tanner (RFA) (2.24.14 DAL will not offer tender), WR Miles Austin - *3.11.14 Austin w ill be released and designated post June 1 cut.

NEEDS: –

NY Giants

QB: Eli Manning, Josh Freeman (4.21.14 1 year deal), Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter, Rusty Smith

RB: Rashad Jennings (3rb) (GLrb) (3.11.14 4 years $14 million), Andre Williams*, David Wilson, Peyton Hillis (3.11.14 Re-signed), Da’Rel Scott, Michael Cox

WR: Victor Cruz (could be in for a Randle Cobb like role with new OC Ben McAdoo), Odell Beckham Jr.*, Rueben Randle, Jerel Jernigan, Mario Manningham (3.21.14 2 year deal), Marcus Harris, Trindon Holliday, Preston Parker, Julian Talley, Travis Harvey, Kris Adams

TE: Adrien Robinson, Kellen Davis, Larry Donnell, Daniel Fells

K: Brandon McManus

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: TE, K, WR

Philadelphia

LeSean McCoy is good.

LeSean McCoy is good

QB: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez (3.28.13 1 year $2.25 million), Matt Barkley, G.J. Kinney

RB: LeSean McCoy (1/2 3rb) (GLrb), Darren Sproles (1/2 3rb)(3.14.14 TRADED to PHI from NO for a 5th round NFL Draft pick), Chris Polk, Matthew Tucker

WR: Jeremy Maclin (2.28.14 Signed 1 year $5.5 million deal), Riley Cooper (2.27.14 Signed 5 year $25 million deal), Jordan Matthews*, Josh Huff*, Jeffrey Maehl, Damaris Johnson, Brad Smith, B.J. Cunningham, Ifeanyi Momah, Will Murphy

TE: Brent Celek, Zach Ertz,  James Casey

K: Alex Henery

Cut Watch: WR Jason Avant. Even though the Eagles are very thin at WR right now, $3.96 million is far too much for an aging, slow slot WR talent.  He has always had amazing hands, but the money is just too big. *Update 3.4.14 Jason Avant was released. *Update 3.28.14 Eagles CUT DeSean Jackson.  

NEEDS: WR

Washington

QB: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy (3.3.14 REDSKINS Agreed to terms)

RB: Alfred Morris (GLrb), Roy Helu (3rb), Lache Seastrunk*, Evan Royster, Curtis Thompson, Miguel Maysonet

WR: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson (4.2.14  3 years $25 million), Andre Roberts (3.11.14 Roberts agreed to terms), Santana Moss (3.11.14 Re-signed 1 year deal), Aldrick Robinson, Leonard Hankerson, Ryan Grant*, Nick Williams, David Gettis

TE: Jordan Reed, Logan Paulsen, Ted Bolser*, Niles Paul, Gabe Miller

K: Kai Forbath, Zach Hocker*

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: –

AFC North

Cincinnati

QB: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, A.J. McCarron*, Matt Scott

RB: Giovani Bernard (3rb) (300 touches in sight), Benjarvus Green-Ellis (GLrb), Jeremy Hill*, Cedric Peerman, Rex Burkhead

WR: A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Dane Sanzebacher (3.5.14 TENDERED), Brandon Tate, James Wright*, Ryan Whalen, Cobi Hamilton

TE: Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Kevin Brock

K: Mike Nugent, Quinn Sharp

Cut Watch: RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis. $3 million and scheduled to become a free agent in 2015.  If they can find an FA or Rookie that can handle goal line and short yardage situations for less than $3 million, expect someone to draw up the law firm’s release papers.

NEEDS: QB

Baltimore

QB: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning*, Nick Stephens

RB: Ray Rice (3rb) (GLrb) (3.26.14 SUSPENSION looming after domestic altercation with now wife earlier in the year. Goodell to wait, but he will be suspended), Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, Cierre Wood, Lorenzo Taliaferro*

WR: Torrey Smith, Steve Smith (3.13.14 Panthers CUT Smith. 3.14.14 Ravens SIGN Smith to 3 year $11.5 million deal), Marlon Brown, Jacoby Jones (3.12.14 Re-signed to 4 year deal), Deonte Thompson, Aaron Mellette, Mike Campanaro*, Kamar Aiken, LaQuan Williams, Gerrard Sheppard

TE: Dennis Pitta (2.28.14 5 year $32 million deal. TE Breakout Candidate with new OC Gary Kubiak), Owen Daniels (4.3.14 Agreed to terms), Crockett Gillmore*, Matt Furstenburg, Nathan Overbay

K: Justin Tucker

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: RB, WR

Cleveland

QB: Johnny Manziel*, Brian Hoyer (3.10.14 New HC Mike Pettine has already penciled Hoyer in as QB1), Vince Young, Tyler Thigpen, Alex Tanney

RB: Ben Tate (GLrb) (3.15.14 2 years $7 million), Chris Obgonnaya (3rb), Terrance West*, Edwin Baker,  Dion Lewis, Fozzy Whittaker

WR: Josh Gordon (5.9.14 Facing season long SUSPENSION for puffin’ el ganja), Miles Austin (5.15.14 Agreed to Terms), Andrew Hawkins (3.5.14 TENDERED by CIN. 3.13.14 CLE offered 2 years $10 million.  CIN is not matching), Travis Benjamin, Nate Burleson, Tori Gurley, Charles Johnson, Josh Cooper, Conner Vernon

TE: Jordan Cameron, Jim Day, Gary Barnidge, MarQueis Gray, Andre Smith

K: Billy Cundiff

Cut Watch: QB Brandon Weeden. $2.2 million might be too much with Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell on the roster for less. Likely cut candidate. *Update 3.12.14 Browns CUT Weeden. WR Davone Bess at $3 million. Recently checked himself in to a mental hospital. Hasn’t spoken with the new leadership. *Update 3.5.14 Browns CUT Bess.   QB Jason Campbell is also a cut candidate. *Update 3.12.14 Browns CUT Campbell.

NEEDS: QB, RB, WR

Pittsburgh

QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones

RB: Le’Veon Bell (3rb) (GLrb), LaGarrette Blount (3.28.14  2 years $3.9 million), Dri Archer*, Alvester Alexander, Tauren Poole

WR: Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton (WR Breakout Candidate), Lance Moore (3.20.14 STEELERS 2 year deal), Martavis Bryant*, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Justin Brown, Derek Moye, Kashif Moore, Lanear Sampson, Jasper Collins, Danny Coale

TE: Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, David Paulson, Michael Palmer

K: Shaun Shuisham

Cut Watch: TE Heath Miller at $9.4 million.  He’s a valuable part of the offense, but the Steelers are $12 million over the cap.  Cuts like Miller will be necessary if they want to get under the limit. The Steelers can’t afford 31 year old talented, oft injured players like Miller. *Update 3.5.14 Miller restructured his contract (via extension) and his 2014 cap number is down to $6.1 million.  He is at no risk of being cut. 

NEEDS: TE, WR

NFC North

Green Bay

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien

RB: Eddie Lacy (3rb) (GLrb), James Starks (3.18.14 PACKERS 2 year deal), Jonathan Franklin, DuJuan Harris, Michael Hill, John Kuhn

WR: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, Davante Adams*, James Abbrederis*, Myles White, Kevin Dorsey, Chris Harper, Jeff Janis*, Alex Gillett

TE:  Richard Rodgers*, Andrew Quarless (3.13.14 Re-signed 2 years $3 million), Brandon Bostick, Ryan Taylor, Jake Stoneburner, Raymond Webber

K: Mason Crosby

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: TE

Chicago

QB: Jay Cutler, Jordan Palmer, David Fales*, Jerrod Johnson

RB: Matt Forte (3rb) (GLrb), Ka’Deem Carey*, Michael Ford, Shaun Draughn, Willie Carter

WR: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Marquess Wilson (sleeper appeal), Josh Morgan, Domenik Hixon (3.13.14 1 year deal), Eric Weems, Terrence Toliver, Chris Williams, Josh Bellamy

TE: Martellus Bennett, TE Dante Rosario (3.13.14 Re-signed  to 1 year deal), Fendi Onobun, Matthew Mulligan, Zach Miller

K: Robbie Gould

Cut Watch: WR Earl Bennett.  Was not effective last season.  $2.45 in cap room can be saved with his release. *3.20.14 Bears CUT Earl Bennett.

NEEDS: RB

Minnesota

QB: Teddy Bridgewater*, Matt Cassel (3.7.14 Re-signed 2 years $10 million), Christian Ponder

RB: Adrian Peterson (3rb) (GLrb), Matt Asiata, Jerick McKinnon*, Zach Line, Joe Banyard, Bradley Randle

WR: Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson (3.12.14 Resigned to 1 year deal), Jarius Wright, Lestar Jean, Rodney Smith, Kamar Jordan, Adam Thielen

TE: Kyle Rudolph (TE Breakout Candidate), Rhett Ellison, Chase Ford, Allen Reisner

K: Blair Walsh

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: QB, WR, RB

Detroit

QB: Matt Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore

RB: Reggie Bush (3rb) (GLrb), Joique Bell (3.12.14 3 year $9 million extension), Theo Riddick, Mikel Leshoure, Steven Miller

WR: Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate (3.12.14 5 years $31 million), Kris Durham (3.11.14 TENDERED), Kevin Ogletree, Ryan Broyles, Patrick Edwards, TJ Jones*, Corey Fuller, Jeremy Ross, Cody Wilson, Naaman Roosevelt

TE: Eric Ebron*, Brandon Pettigrew (3.14.15 4 years $16 million) Josepsh Fauria, Michael Williams, Matt Veldman, Jordan Thompson

K: Giorgio Tavecchio, John Potter, Nate Freese*

Cut Watch: WR Nate Burleson already an early casualty.  At a price tag of $7 million the cut made good sense.  That’s way above his market value, which is more like $2 or $3 million.

NEEDS: WR

AFC South

Houston

QB:  Ryan Fitzpatrick (3.20.14 2 years $7.5 million), Case Keenum, Tom Savage*

RB: Arian Foster (3rb) (GLrb), Andre Brown (3.7.14 1 year $645,000), Dennis Johnson, Alfred Blue*, Jonathan Grimes, Chad Spann

WR: Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, DeVier Posey, Keshawn Martin, Mike Thomas, Alan Bonner, Uzoma Nwachukwu, Alec Lemon, Rico Richardson, Andy Cruse

TE: Garrett Graham (3.13.14 Re-signed 3 years $11 million), C.J. Fiedorowicz*, Ryan Griffin, Phillip Supernaw, Zach Potter

K: Randy Bullock

Cut Watch: QB Matt Schaub. At $14 million he is the highest paid Texan.  A team only $2 million under the salary cap with the first pick in the NFL Draft cannot afford that kind of toxic wage on their roster. Schaub needs to be dumped in favor of a cheap free agent or a 2nd or 3rd round QB. *Update 3.21.14 TRADED to OAK from HOU for 6th round NFL Draft pickTE Owen Daniels. Despite his talent, could be released due to his $6 million cost. O’Brien’s regime could covet a TE with Daniel’s type of elite receiving ability though, so we’ll see. *Update 3.11.14 Texans CUT Daniels.  O’Brien’s offense won’t use TE like Kubiak’s did.  Somebody will snatch up Daniels.

NEEDS: QB, TE

Indianapolis

QB: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasslebeck, Chandler Harnish

RB: Trent Richardson (3rb) (GLrb), Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Chris Rainey, Dan Herron

WR: Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks (3.14.14 1 year $5.5 million), TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief*, LaVon Brazill, Da’Rick Rogers, Griff Whalen, Josh Lenz

TE: Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Jack Doyle, Wesley Saunders, Martell Webb

K: Adam Vinatieri

Cut Watch: RB Tashard Choice because he has already been cut.

NEEDS:

Jacksonville

QB: Blake Bortles*, Chad Henne (3.7.14 Re-signed 2 years $6.75 million), Ricky Stanzi, Matt Scott

RB: Toby Gerhart (3rb) (GLrb) (3.11.14 3 year $10.5 million deal. If they bring in no one else at RB, he’s the starter and in line for RB2 consideration), Jordan Todman (3.8.14 TENDERED), Denard Robinson, Storm Johnson*, Delone Carter

WR: Cecil Shorts, Marqise Lee*, Allen Robinson*, Justin Blackmon (3.15.14 crashed his car.  OK after the accident. Alcohol not involved. Suspended indefinitely. Playing this year is unlikely.), Ace Sanders, Mike Brown, Jeremy Ebert, Tandon Doss, Chad Bumpis, Kerry Taylor, Stephen Williams, Lamar Thomas

TE: Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Barden

K: Josh Scobee

Cut Watch: TE Marcedes Lewis.  He’s an above average NFL TE, despite the lack of national hype, but still not worth $8 million and needs to be cut in favor of younger, cheaper options.  This is by far the league’s worst roster entering the 2014 offseason.  The Jags need to make some moves.

NEEDS: QB, WR, TE

Tennessee

QB: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst (3.13.14 2 years $8 million), Zach Mettenberger*, Tyler Wilson

RB: Bishop Sankey* (3rb), Shonn Greene (GLrb), Dexter McCluster (3.11.14 3 years $12 million), Jackie Battle, Leon Washington (Signed to one year deal)

WR: Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, Justin Hunter, Dexter McCluster (3.11.14 3 years $12 million), Michael Preston, Marc Mariani, Lamont Bryant, Brian Robiskie, Isaiah Williams

TE: Delanie Walker, Craig Stevens, Taylor Thompson, Adam Schlitz,

K: Maikon Bonani

Cut Watch: RB Chris Johnson. $10 million reasons. He’s much better than his critics will give him credit for. No longer an elite RB however and is not worth his outrageous salary. The new regime in Nashville may way to go a different direction. *Update 4.7.14 Titans CUT Chris Johnson. The lapdog media is reporting the Titans had questions about Johnson’s work ethic. BULLSHIT! This was 100% about money.  CJ2K will pick up somewhere quickly. WR Nate Washington.  $6 million is too much cash for one of the most underrated players ever. The emergence of WR Kendall Wright, and the surprising late season play of WR Justin Hunter make this high probability cut. The Titans only have $10 million in cap space.

NEEDS: RB, QB, TE, WR

NFC South

Carolina 

QB: Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Joe Webb, Matt Blanchard

RB: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Kenjon Barner, Mike Tolbert (3rb) (GLrb)

WR: Kelvin Benjamin*, Jerricho Cotchery (3.20.14 2 year deal),  Jason Avant, Tiquan Underwood,Tavarres King, Marvin McNutt, Kealoha Pilares, Toney Clemons, Brenton Bersin

TE: Greg Olsen, Ed Dickson, Brandon Williams, Mike McNeill, D.C. Jefferson

K: Graham Gano

Cut Watch: WR Steve Smith.  $7 million cap number and 32 years old.  The Panthers are shopping Smith. if they aren’t able to find a taker, likely, GM Dave Gettleman would cut the best player in Panthers history. *Update 3.13.14 Panthers CUT Smith. **Update 3.14.14 Ravens SIGN Smith to 3 year $11.5 million deal

NEEDS: WR

New Orleans

QB: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin

RB: Pierre Thomas (3rb) (3.12.14 Signed 2 year extension), Mark Ingram (GLrb), Khiry Robinson, Travaris Cadet

WR: Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks*, Nick Toon, Robert Meachem, Joe Morgan, Chris Givens, Andy Tanner, Charles Hawkins

TE: TE/WR Jimmy Graham (3.3.14 Franchise Tag), Ben Watson, Josh Hill

K: Shayne Graham, Derek Dimke

Cut Watch: WR’s Marques Colston and Lance Moore.  Colston will count $8 million against and Moore’s is due $5 million.  Just $2 million under the cap, New Orleans likely can’t afford both of these fragile, yet gifted receivers. Look for one to be slashed from the roster before the season begins. *Update 3.7.14 Saints CUT Moore. RB Pierre Thomas.  He an unrestricted free agent (UFA) in 2015. Already stacked with RBs, the Saints could opt to cut ties with the swiss army knife back and allow Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson more playing time. *Update 3.12.14 Being the saavy franchise that they are, the Saints opted to give Pierre Thomas a 2 year extension (decreasing this year’s cap number), and TRADE RB Darren Sproles for a 5th round draft pick. Maybe they will get a player like DeAnthony Thomas or Dri Archer in the 5th round and fill the vacant Sproles’ role on the cheap.

NEEDS: –

Atlanta

QB: Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree

RB: Steven Jackson (3rb) (GLrb), Jacquizz Rodgers, Devonta Freeman*, Antone Smith, Josh Vaughan

WR: Julio Jones, Roddy White, Harry Douglas, Drew Davis, Darius Johnson, Devin Hester, Domonique Croom

TE: Levine Toilolo (mini TE Breakout Candidate. 6’8 265 frame guarantees Red Zone opps if the offense can move the chains), Mickey Schuler, Andrew Szczerba, Bear Pascoe

K: Matt Bryant

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: RB, TE

Tampa Bay

QB: Josh McCown (3.12.14 2 years $10 million), Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka

RB: Doug Martin (3rb) (GLrb), Charles Sims*, Mike James, Bobby Rainey (3.5.14 2 year extension), Michael Smith, Jeff Demps

WR: Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans*, Chris Owusu, Louis Murphy, Robert Herron*, Eric Page, Lavelle Hawkins, Russell Shepard, Skye Dawson, Tommy Streeter

TE: Austin Seferian-Jenkins*, Brandon Myers (3.11.13 2 years $4 million), Tim Wright, Tom Crabtree, Luke Stocker, Steve Maneri

K: Connor Barth, Patrick Murray

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: WR, TE, QB

AFC West

Denver

QB: Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiller, Zac Dysert

RB: Montee Ball (3rb) (GLrb), C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, Jerodis Williams

WR: Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders (3.16.14 3 years $18 million), Cody Latimer*, Andre Caldwell, Jordan Norwood, Nathan Palmer, Gerrell Robinson, Greg Wilson

TE: Julius Thomas, Virgil Green, Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, Cameron Morrah

K: Matt Prater

Cut Watch: WR Wes Welker. The 32 year old slot specialist is a potential release at $8 million.  He plays an important role in the Denver offense, but his high cost and age land him smack dab in the salary cap crosshairs. Most likely scenario here is that he restructures in some way and remains an important part of the offense in 2014. Decker hitting free agency gives his camp some leverage.

NEEDS: RB

Kansas City

QB: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray*

RB: Jamaal Charles (3rb) (GLrb), Knile Davis, DeAnthony Thomas*, Cyrus Gray, Joe McKnight

WR: Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery, A.J. Jenkins, Junior Hemmingway, Jerrell Jackson, Kyle Williams, Rashad Ross, Fred Williams, Weston Dressler, Frankie Hammond

TE: Anthony Fasano, Sean McGrath, Travis Kelce, Richard Gordon

K: Ryan Succop

Cut Watch: WR Dwayne Bowe. $12 million. A team just $3 million under the cap can’t afford a massive salary like Bowe’s. TE Anthony Fasano. $4.9 million. Pricey for a middling talent. Is his blocking ability really worth it?

NEEDS: WR, TE

Oakland

QB: Matt Schaub (3.21.14 TRADED to OAK from HOU for 6th round NFL Draft pick), Derek Carr*, Matt McGloin

RB: Maurice Jones-Drew (3rb) (GLrb) (3.28.14 Agreed to Terms), Darren McFadden (3.11.14 Re-signed 1 year $4 million), Marcel Reece, Latavius Murray, Jeremy Stewart, Kory Sheets

WR: James Jones (3.17.14 3 years $11.3 million), Denarius Moore, Rod Streater, Andre Holmes, Brice Butler, Juron Criner, Gregory Jenkins, Jared Green

TE: Mychal Rivera, Nick Kasa, David Ausberry, Brian Leonhardt

K: Sebastian Janikowski

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: QB, WR, TE

San Diego

QB: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens (3.13.14 2 year deal), Brad Sorensen

RB: Ryan Matthews (GLrb), Danny Woodhead (3rb), Donald Brown (3.11.14 Signed from IND 3 years $10.5 million), Marion Grice*, Kerwynn Williams

WR: Keenan Allen, Malcolm Floyd, Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown, Tevin Reese*, Seyi Ajirotutu, Dontrelle Inman, Tobias Palmer

TE: Antonio Gates, Ladarius Green, John Phillips, Jake Byrne, Ryan Otten

K: Nick Novak

Cut Watch: TE Antonio Gates. The future HOF’s roster spot is in jeopardy with the Chargers $3 million over the cap heading into free agency and the draft. The injury issues multiply with each passing day and at $7 million and with a cheap, budding alternative in Ladarius Green behind, Gates could be saying goodbye to San Diego. WR Eddie Royal. Despite the 8 TDs in 2013, Eddie is not deserving of the $6 million he is scheduled to make in 2014.  The Chargers could find a replaceable talent for half the cost. WR Malcolm Floyd at $4 million is an aging, injury prone option that the Bolts might not be able to afford either

NEEDS: WR

NFC West

San Francisco

QB: Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert (3.11.14 TRADED to SF from JAX for a 6th round NFL Draft pick), McLeod Bethel-Thompson

RB: Frank Gore (3rb) (GLrb), Kendall Hunter, Carlos Hyde, Marcus Lattimore, LaMichael James, Jewel Hampton

WR: Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin (3.3.14 Renegotiated contract. 5 year extension, but can be voided after 2 years), Stevie Johnson (5.10.14 TRADED to SF from BUF for a conditional 4th round 2015 NFL Draft pick), Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington*, Brandon Lloyd, Jon Baldwin, David Reed, Kassim Osgood, Chuck Jacobs, DeMarco Sampson, Devon Wylie

TE: Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald, Garrett Celek, Derek Carrier

K: Phil Dawson

Cut Watch: RB Frank Gore. The Niners are $11.9 million under the cap.  Gore will be a UFA in 2015.  Behind him Hunter can’t stay healthy, Lattimore is coming off two huge injuries, and LaMichael James has yet to prove he is more than a situational back in the NFL, but they all have big talent.  At a cost of $6.45 million, SF could view Gore’s contract as expendable with the depth of talent behind. The most likely scenario is that they keep Gore and restructure with guys like Michael Crabtree and Mike Iupati, UFAs in 2015 as well, to create the extra cap room.

NEEDS: WR

Seattle

QB: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson (3.14.14 1 year $1.25 million), Terrelle Pryor, B.J. Daniels

RB: Marshawn Lynch (3rb) (GLrb), Christine Michael, Robert Turbin, Kiero Small*

WR: Percy Harvin, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Kevin Norwood*, Paul Richardson*,  Sidney Rice, Ricardo Lockette,  Bryan Walters, Phil Bates, Chris Matthews, Arceto Clark, Taylor Price

TE: Zach Miller, Luke Wilson, Anthony McCoy, Cooper Helfet, Travis Beckum

K: Steven Hauschka

Cut Watch: TE Zach Miller. $7 million for an average talent is not a sound investment. WR Sidney Rice. Same goes for this player at almost $10 million.  No way is he worth that amount.  I expect the hawks, as one of the league’s brightest organizations, to cut bait on at least one of these two. *Update 2.28.14 Rice has been released.

NEEDS: TE, WR

Arizona

QB: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, Ryan Lindley

RB: Andre Ellington (3rb), Stepfan Taylor (GLrb), Jonathan Dwyer (3.12.14 Signed to deal) Alfonso Smith

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown*, Ted Ginn Jr (3.13.14 3 year deal), Brittan Golden, Walt Powell*, Jaron Brown, Teddy Williams, Dan Buckner, Javone Lawson

TE: Troy Niklas, Rob Housler, John Carlson (3.7.14 2 years $4.6 million), Jake Ballard, Darren Fells, Andre Hardy

K: Jay Feely, Danny Hrapmann

Cut Watch: None.

NEEDS: TE, RB, QB

St. Louis

QB: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill (3.26.14 1 year $1.75 million), Austin Davis, Garrett Gilbert*

RB: Zac Stacy (3rb) (GLrb), Tre Mason*, Benny Cunningham, Isaiah Pead, Chase Reynolds

WR: Chris Givens, Austin Pettis, Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt (3.31.14 1 year $1.4 million), Brian Quick, Stedman Bailey, Justin Veltung, Emory Blake, T.J. Moe

TE: Jared Cook, Lance Kendricks, Justice Cunningham

K: Greg Zuerlein

Cut Watch: None

NEEDS: WR, QB

Job Seekers

Top Free Agent QBs:

1. Josh McCown *3.12.14 BUCCANEERS 2 years $10 million

Where will Josh McCown go?

Where will Josh McCown go?

2. Mike Vick *3.21.14 JETS 1 year $5 million

3. Mark Sanchez *3.21.14 Jets RELEASE Mark Sanchez *3.28.14 EAGLES 1 year $2.25 million

4. Ryan Fitzpatrick *3.14.14 Titans RELEASE Ryan Fitzpatrick  *3.20.14 TEXANS 2 years $7.5 million

5. Matt Cassell *3.7.14 VIKINGS 2 years $10 million

6. Chad Henne *3.7.14 JAGUARS 2 years $6.75 million

7. Josh Freeman *4.21.14 GIANTS 1 year deal

8. Tarvaris Jackson *3.14.14 SEAHAWKS 1 year $1.25 million

9. Shaun Hill *3.26.14 RAMS 1 year $1.75 million

10. Kellen Clemens *3.13.14 CHARGERS 2 year deal

11. Brandon Weeden *3.12.14 Browns RELEASE Brandon Weeden. *3.17.14 COWBOYS 2 year deal.

Top Rookie QBs:

1. Johnny Manziel – BROWNS – Rd. 1

2. Blake Bortles – JAGUARS – Rd. 1

3. Derek Carr – RAIDERS – Rd. 2

4. Teddy Bridgewater – VIKINGS – Rd. 1

5. A.J. McCarron – BENGALS – Rd. 5

6. Jimmy Garoppolo – PATRIOTS – Rd. 2

7. Tom Savage – TEXANS – Rd. 4

8. Aaron Murray – CHIEFS – Rd. 5

9. Tahj Boyd – JETS – Rd. 6

10. Zach Mettenberger – TITANS – Rd. 6

11. David Fales – BEARS – Rd. 6

12. Logan Thomas – CARDINALS – Rd. 4

——————–

Keith Wenning – RAVENS – Rd. 6

Garrett Gilbert – RAMS – Rd. 6

Combine Notes: Johnny Manziel chose not to throw, but he did everything else.  He’s probably the best athlete in a QB class loaded with them.  Would have liked to see him show off his arm. Teams will have to wait until his Pro Day on March 5th. Bortles did everything.  He ran a little slower than expected on the 40 yard dash, but he has a very live arm and his stature is impressive.  Bridgewater donned a hooded sweatshirt and looked pretty relaxed as he stood there and did nothing.  You have to question his competitiveness.  Like Bridgewater, Manziel and Derek Carr chose not to throw, but at least they competed in the 40. Both did well there too. A.J. McCarron looks the part of an excellent NFL backup, and displayed very nice accuracy and a strong arm.  Tahj Boyd didn’t do anything to quash questions about his accuracy. He lacked consistency in the positional drills. Logan Thomas at 6’6 250 lbs. is a freak of nature.  Like Boyd, there are big questions about his accuracy. Raw, but he looks the part though if some team out there believes they can mold him into an NFL QB.

Top Free Agent RBs:

1. Chris Johnson *4.7.14 Titans RELEASE Chris Johnson. *4.15.14 JETS 2 years $8 million.

2. Ben Tate – *3.15.14 Expected to sign with BROWNS.  This is the ideal landing spot for Tate.  He immediately jumps into RB2 territory. Injury concerns will lurk. *3.15.14 signed with BROWNS 2 years $7 million.

3. Rashad Jennings – *3.12.14 GIANTS 4 years $14 million

4. LaGarrette Blount *3.28.14 STEELERS 2 years $3.9 million

3. Knowshon Moreno *3.27.14 DOLPHINS 1 year $3 million

4. Maurice Jones-Drew *3.28.14 RAIDERS Agreed to Terms

5. Darren McFadden *3.11.14 RAIDERS Re-signed 1 year $4 million

6. Andre Brown *4.7.14 Visiting TEXANS today. Would be a nice match here and fill in nicely as the Arian Foster handcuff. *3.7.14 TEXANS 1 year $645,000.

7. Donald Brown *3.11.14 CHARGERS 3 years $10.5 million

8. James Starks *3.18.14 PACKERS 2 year deal

9. Toby Gerhart *3.11.14 JAGUARS signed to 3 year $10.5 million deal.  If they bring in no one else at RB, he’s the starter right now and in line for RB2 consideration. Woo! Fantasy football is fun.

10. Rashard Mendenhall – Very possible he retires. ****Update 3.10.14 Mendenhall announces RETIREMENT. He’s caught a lot of flack for the 9/11 comment, but retiring at age 26, health intact with probably at least $3 or 4 million of his career $15 million earnings in the bank ain’t too shabby.  People will forget that his six year career was longer than most.  He left on his own terms.

11. Ahmad Bradshaw

12. Michael Bush *3.10.14 Bears RELEASE Michael Bush

Top Rookie RBs:

1. Bishop Sankey – TITANS – Rd. 2 (1st RB taken)

Needs a good showing at his Pro Day

Carlos Hyde needs a good showing at his Pro Day

2. Carlos Hyde – 49ERS – Rd. 2

3. Jeremy Hill – BENGALS – Rd. 2

4. Lache Seastrunk – REDSKINS – Rd. 6 – Potential kick returner

5. Tre Mason – RAMS – Rd. 3 – Potential kick returner

6. Charles Sims – BUCCANEERS – Rd. 3

7. Ka’Deem Carey – BEARS Rd. 4

8. Andre Williams – GIANTS – Rd. 4

9. Marion Grice – CHARGERS – Rd. 6

10. Isaiah Crowell

11. Terrance West – BROWNS – Rd. 3

12. Jerrick McKinnon – VIKINGS – Rd. 3

13. DeAnthony Thomas – CHIEFS – Rd. 4 – Potential kick returner/slot receiver/Sproles type role

14. Dri Archer – STEELERS – Rd. 3 – Potential kick returner/slot receiver/Sproles type role

————————-

Devonta Freeman – FALCONS – Rd. 4

James White – PATRIOTS – Rd. 4

Lorenzo Taliaferro – RAVENS – Rd. 4

Alfred Blue – TEXANS – Rd. 6

Storm Johnson – JAGUARS – Rd. 7

Kiero Small – SEAHAWKS – Rd. 7

Combine Notes: Carlos Hyde ran a much slower than expected 4.6 40 official before injuring his hamstring. Didn’t get to see him catch many passes. Kind of a bummer. He’ll get another crack at showing teams his speed on his Pro Day March 7th. Tre Mason showed off his top notch athletic ability.  He could make a push to be the first running back drafted. Ka’Deem Carey had a slow 4.6 40 time, but he’s not a home run hitter anyways.  He looked solid in positional drills. Jeremy Hill is really impressive.  He has much better hands than I thought and was making some difficult catches. A big back like him would have big fantasy impact in the right situation. Andre Williams ran well, but it’s obvious he has no natural catching ability.  He needs to start catching with his hands away from his body and will need to improve in this area to be a real three down back. Dri Archer gave Chris Johnson a run for his money with a blazing 4.26 40 yard dash time.  He is going to be very useful to the right team.  His skill set is similar to DeAnthony Thomas, who also had a good showing.  These multi-purpose small speed backs are a very important part of the NFL now.

Top Free Agent WRs:

1. DeSean Jackson *3.28.14 Eagles RELEASE DeSean Jackson.  *4.2.14 REDSKINS 3 years $25 million

1. Eric Decker *3.13.14 JETS 5 years $36 million

2. Anquan Boldin – *3.3.14 49ERS 5 year extension, but can be voided after 2 years.  NFL teams are so sneaky.

3. Hakeem Nicks *3.14.14 COLTS 1 year $5.5 million

4. Riley Cooper – *2.27.14 EAGLES 5 years $25 million

5. Jeremy Maclin – *2.28.14 EAGLES 1 year $5.5 million

6. James Jones *3.17.14 RAIDERS 3 years $11.3 million

7. Julian Edelman *3.15.14 PATRIOTS Agreed to terms

8. Golden Tate *3.12.14 LIONS 5 years $31 million

9. Lance Moore *3.7.14 Saints RELEASE Lance Moore *3.20.14 STEELERS 2 year deal.

10. Emmanuel Sanders *3.16.14 BRONCOS 3 years $18 million

11. Kenny Britt *3.31.14 RAMS 1 year $1.4 million

12. Miles Austin

13. Andre Roberts – *3.11.14 REDSKINS Agreed to terms

14. Dexter McCluster – *3.11.14 TITANS 3 years $12 million

Top Rookie WRs:

1. Sammy Watkins – instant impact fantasy WR – BILLS – Rd. 1 – projected #1 WR

2. Mike Evans – BUCCANEERS – Rd. 1 – projected #2wr

3. Marqise Lee – JAGUARS – Rd. 2 – projected #2 wr

4. O’Dell Beckham Jr. – GIANTS – Rd. 1 – projected #2wr

5. Brandin Cooks – SAINTS – Rd. 1 – projected #2wr

6. Cody Latimer – BRONCOS – Rd. 2 – projected #4 wr

7. Allen Robinson – JAGUARS – Rd. 2 – projected #3 wr

8. Kelvin Benjamin – PANTHERS – Rd. 1 – projected #1wr

9. Jordan Matthews – EAGLES – Rd. 2 – projected #3 wr

10. Paul Richardson – SEAHAWKS – Rd. 2 – projected #4 wr

11. Jarvis Landry – DOLPHINS – Rd. 2

12. Donte Moncrief – COLTS – Rd. 3

13. Jared Abbrederis – PACKERS – Rd. 6

14. Martavis Bryant – STEELERS – Rd. 4

15. Josh Huff – EAGLES – Rd. 3

—————–

Davante Adams – PACKERS – Rd. 2

John Brown – CARDINALS – Rd. 3

Jalen Saunders – JETS – Rd. 4

Bruce Ellington – 49ERS – Rd. 4

Shaq Evans – JETS – Rd. 4

Kevin Norwood – SEAHAWKS – Rd. 4

Ryan Grant – REDSKINS – Rd. 5

Devin Street – COWBOYS – Rd. 5

Robert Herron – BUCCANEERS – Rd. 6

TJ Jones – LIONS – Rd. 6

Matt Hazel – DOLPHINS – Rd. 6

Walt Powell – CARDINALS – Rd. 6

Quincy Enuwa – JETS – Rd. 6

Mike Campanaro – RAVENS -Rd. 7

Jeff Janis – PACKERS – Rd. 7

James Wright – BENGALS – Rd. 7

Tevin Reese – CHARGERS – Rd. 7

Jeremy Gallon – PATRIOTS – Rd. 7

Combine Notes:  Brandin Cooks stood out with a 4.33 official 40 yard dash time. Just 5’9, he showed strong hands and tenacity in position drills.  He really helped himself.  Sammy Watkins ran a little slower than expected, but it’s obvious he is going to be a star.  With good coaching he will be incredibly dynamic.  He needs to refine his route running a little bit. Mike Evans is also a stud in the making.  His hands are so soft and he moves very well at 6’5 230 lbs. He’s going to be an instant impact player in the red zone. Marqise Lee showed off his sick hands in positional drills, even though his 40 yard dash left something to be desired.  O’Dell Beckham gave NFL teams a glimpse of his explosive speed and good hands.  He’s going in the first round. His teammate at LSU, Jarvis Landry, ran a slow first 40 time and injured himself.  His stock is going down.  Josh Brown of Pittsburgh State surprised just about everyone in the building. He will now certainly get drafted after a fantastic combine workout.

Top Free Agent TEs:

1. Jimmy Graham – *3.3.14 SAINTS Franchise Tag

2. Dennis Pitta – *2.28.14 RAVENS 5 years $32 million

3. Owen Daniels *3.11.14 Texans RELEASE Owen Daniels. *4.3.14 RAVENS Agreed to terms.

4. Jeremichael Finley *3.21.14 Could be signed by a team in a few months.  Seattle, New England, NY Jets would be good landing spots.

5. Garrett Graham *3.13.14 TEXANS 3 years $11 million.

6. Brandon Myers *3.11.14 BUCCANEERS 2 years $4 million

7. Brandon Pettigrew *3.14.15 LIONS 4 years $16 million. A stupid contract.  Far too much for a very average NFL TE.  Also this slims the chance of a Joseph Fauria breakout, and seeing touchdown dances.

8. Scott Chandler – *3.13.14 BILLS 2 years

9. Fred Davis – Could be DONE in the NFL with a rough February.

10. Jeff Cumberland – *3.9.14 JETS re-signed Cumberland 3 years $3.7 million

11. Ed Dickson *3.18.14 Has been offered a contract by the Jaguars and Ravens.

Top Rookie TEs:

1. Eric Ebron – instant impact fantasy TE – LIONS – Rd. 1 – #1 Jimmy Graham “move” tight end

2. Austin Seferian-Jenkins – BUCCANEERS – Rd. 2

3. Jace Amaro – JETS – Rd. 2

4. Troy Niklas – CARDINALS – Rd. 2

5. C.J. Fiedorowicz – TEXANS – Rd. 3

6. Arthur Lynch – DOLPHINS – Rd. 5

7. Crockett Gillmore – RAVENS – Rd. 3

8. Marcel Jensen

9. Joe Don Duncan

10. Colt Lyerla

11. Jacob Pedersen

12. A.C. Anderson

—————-

Richard Rodgers – PACKERS – Rd. 3

Ted Bolser – REDSKINS – Rd. 7

Rob Blanchflower – STEELERS – Rd. 7

Combine Notes:  Eric Ebron ran very well before in the 40 yard dash (4.6) before pulling his hamstring and sitting out the ball catching positional drills. Very disappointing.  Jace Amaro had a few terrible drops, but bounced back with some nice grabs late.  Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Troy Niklas did not run the 40, nursing some kind of minor injuries, but Niklas did participate in the positional drills and looks strong.  Marcel Jensen, Crockett Gilmore, and Jacob Pedersen looked very solid catching the ball and running routes, displaying soft hands. Despite a litany of off-field issues, Colt Lyerla and A.C. Anderson looked very impressive and could end up being huge steals if they can grow up and stop making stupid mistakes in their personal lives.  Joe Don Duncan, who has the best name in this group. dominated the bench press with 35 reps.

Top Rookie K:

Zach Hocker – REDSKINS – Rd. 7

Nate Freese – LIONS – Rd. 7

Job Opportunities

Quarterback: Houston, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Buffalo, Arizona, Miami

Runningback: Tennessee, Cleveland, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Arizona, Atlanta, Minnesota, Denver, Pittsburgh, Chicago

Wide Receiver: Cleveland, St. Louis, San Diego, NY Jets, Detroit, Kansas City, Carolina,  Minnesota, Pittsburgh,  NY Giants, Miami, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Oakland

Tight End: Green Bay, NY Giants, NY Jets, Buffalo, Atlanta, New England, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tennessee, Oakland, Seattle, Arizona, Tampa Bay

 

Salary Info provided by www.spotrac.com.

Depth Chart Info provided by www.rotoworld.com

Follow us on twitter at @smugff

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5 comments on “Offseason Overview

  1. devereaux frazier
    February 24, 2014

    Pretty nice work here. Where do you play fantasy?

    • smugff
      February 24, 2014

      Thank you. Yahoo! and MyFantasyLeague.com are the best. ESPN is just OK.

      • devereaux frazier
        February 24, 2014

        are you playing next year?

      • smugff
        February 24, 2014

        Of Course

      • devereaux frazier
        February 24, 2014

        when draft day rolls around, if you could send me a link to sign up for your league that woulde be nice

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